Research progress in method for AIDS epidemic estimation

Since the first report of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) case in the United States in 1981,AIDS has become a global public health issue which can not be neglected.At present,the approaches commonly used to estimate AIDS epidemic include back calculation method,component model,Delphi method,Workbook method,Asian epidemic model,prediction software package model,and Spectrum model.The AIDS epidemic in China is very complex,and the epidemic in each province has its own characteristics.This article summerizes the structure and principle,required index,output results,application as well as advantages and disadvantages of the estimation and prediction methods most commonly used for AIDS epidemic.