Objective To forecast the schistosomiasis prevalence in Zhongshan village of/breaking dikes or opening sluice for waterstore0 in Dongting Lake and to provide decision support for the government.
Methods Grey model (1, 1) was applied and residual was ameliorated.
Results Average relative error of schistosomiasis prevalence grey model (1, 1) in Zhongshan village was 13.61%, and model accuracy was not good.Everage relative error of grey model (1, 1) which residual was ameliorated was 4.85%, and model accuracy was good.Residual-ameliorated model was (k+1)=-19.373641e-0.081742k+20.677187.The predicted values of future three years were 15.71%, 16.54% and 17.53% respectively.
Conclusion The prediction effect of residual-ameliorated model is successful.Schistosomiasis prevalence in Zhongsha village will increase in the future three years.Schistosomiasis preventive work should be reinforced.
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