Study on using ARMA model to evaluate the continuity of community health services

  Objective   To evaluate the continuity of community health services of community family physician model in city.

  Methods   To analyze the visit to the community health centre(CHC)among three kinds of outpatients-the patients contracting with the CHC, the electronic patients and the general, and to create the time series ARMA model to predict the trend of the visit.

  Results   There is an obvious rise trend in visit amount of people contracting with CHC.According to the prediction of the time series model fitting for the visit of people contracting with CHC, the visit will keep the increase trend in some period and the rise of the amount of the visit is attributed to the increase of the visit per capita.

  Conclusion   The community family physician model can provide the personal health service for registers with CHC by the family health record.The community family physician model is a feasible health care model for Chinese situation.