Study on methods of estimating size of drug user

  Objective   To explore the effective method for estimateing the size of drug users.

  Methods   Capture-mark-recapture method, multiplier method and delphi method were applied to calculate the numbers of drug users in Leshan downtown district, using the data collected Leshan detoxic center from 1997 to 2002.

  Results   The size of drug users calculated in Leshan downtown district were 3 455, 1 703 and 2 600 by capture-mark-recapture method, multiplier method and delphi method, respectively.

  Conclusion   Capture-mark-recapture method was easy to operate, and credibility of the data counted was high.Multiplier method was convenient to count, but want to obtain the true multiplier was difficult.Delphi method was useful to investigate the closed population, but its results was influenced by a lot of subjective factors.