Fitness of morbidity and discussion of epidemic characteristics of SARS based on logistic models

  Objective   To investigate the epidemic characteristics and trend of SARS and study these characteristics and corresponding prevention measures to the influence of the epidemic of SARS and provide evidence for the prevention and control by using logistic models.

  Methods   Logistic model was used to fit the cumulative incidence of Guangzhou, Hong Kong, Beijing and Shanxi. Incidence curve was drawn from the models.

  Results   The models got good fitting results, all determination coefficients are more than 0.99.The predicted values accord with the true values well and there is no statistical significance between them. The time distribution can be calculated and the influence of preventive measures are discussed.

  Conclusion   Logistic models got very good fitness results and can be used to study the influence of preventive measures to the occurrence and epidemic characteristics of SARS in theory.