2010 — 2022年杭州市百日咳流行特征分析及其发病预测

杨瑛莹; 刘艳; 张学潮; 许玉洋; 王婧; 顾雯雯; 杜渐; 张小平; 王骏; 车鑫仁; 江伟; 谢启新; 卢肇骏; 谷林涛

doi:10.11847/zgggws1142699

2010 — 2022年杭州市百日咳流行特征分析及其发病预测

Prevalence characteristics of pertussis from 2010 to 2022 and its projected incidence in Hangzhou city

摘要

摘要:
目的分析杭州市2010 — 2022年百日咳流行特征，构建自回归移动平均（autoregressive integrated moving average，ARIMA）模型对杭州市百日咳发病率进行预测，为百日咳防控工作提供参考依据。
方法分别通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统中传染病监测系统和杭州市统计局发布的《统计年鉴》（http://tjj.hangzhou.gov.cn/）收集杭州市2010 — 2022年百日咳报告发病数据和人口资料，分析百日咳流行特征；构建ARIMA模型并预测杭州市2023 — 2024年百日咳的发病率。
结果 2010 — 2022年杭州市累计报告百日咳 2 484例，年均报告发病率为2.49/10万，男女性别比为1.03 : 1；夏季高发，发病高峰主要集中在6月；钱塘区、滨江区和余杭区为高发地区；发病年龄段主要集中在0～4岁（占47.34%）。 ARIMA（0，1，2）（0，1，1）₁₂为最优预测模型，预测杭州市2023 — 2024年百日咳的发病水平较2022年有所下降。
结论杭州市2010 — 2022年百日咳发病整体呈上升趋势；ARIMA模型能够较好地对杭州市百日咳发病趋势进行预测。

Abstract:
Objective To analyze the prevalence of pertussis in Hangzhou city from 2010 to 2022 and predict its incidence rate using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, with the goal of improving prevention and control measures.
Methods The reported pertussis incidence data and population data of Hangzhou city from 2010 to 2022 were collected through the infectious disease surveillance system in the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System and the Statistical Yearbooks published by the Hangzhou Statistics Bureau (http://tjj.hangzhou.gov.cn/), respectively, to analyze the epidemiological characteristics. The collected data was used to construct an ARIMA model for predicting pertussis incidence rates in the city for 2023 and 2024.
Results A total of 2 484 pertussis cases were reported in Hangzhou city over a 13-year period, with a male-to-female ratio of 1.03 : 1 and an average annual incidence rate of 2.49 per 100 000 population. The majority of pertussis cases occurred during the summer season, with the highest monthly incidence observed in June each year. Three districts within the city exhibited high rates of pertussis incidence. Approximately half (47.34%) of the reported cases involved children aged 0 – 4 years old. Based on the optimal ARIMA(0,1,2)(0,1,1)₁₂ model analysis results, a projected decrease in annual incidence rates is expected for both 2023 and 2024 compared to that of 2022.
Conclusion The incidence of pertussis in Hangzhou has been increasing from 2010 to 2022, and the ARIMA model can provide predictions for the incidence trend of pertussis in the city.

HTML全文

参考文献(26)

施引文献

资源附件(0)