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内蒙古中西部6个典型城市可吸入颗粒物暴露对居民每日死亡影响

Effect of short-term exposure to ambient inhalable particulate matter on daily mortality in six typical cities in central and western Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, 2017 – 2022: analysis of death registry and daily meteorological data

  • 摘要:
    目的 了解内蒙古中西部6个典型城市可吸入颗粒物(PM10)暴露对居民每日死亡的影响,为相关部门制定空气污染防护措施提供参考依据。
    方法 收集内蒙古呼和浩特市、包头市、鄂尔多斯市、巴彦淖尔市、乌海市和阿拉善盟6个中西部典型城市2017年1月1日 — 2021年12月31日城区逐日气象资料、大气污染物浓度和居民死亡数据,采用广义线性模型定量评估内蒙古中西部6个典型城市PM10暴露与居民每日死亡的关系,并分性别、年龄、文化程度和婚姻状况进行分层分析。
    结果 内蒙古中西部6个典型城市2017 — 2021年PM10日均浓度为(89.17 ± 84.71)μg/m3,居民非意外总死亡、呼吸系统疾病死亡和循环系统疾病死亡的每日平均死亡数分别为(71 ± 15)、(10 ± 4)和(34 ± 10)例;单日滞后效应分析结果显示,PM10日均浓度每升高10 μg/m3,当日(Lag0 d)居民非意外总死亡数和循环系统疾病死亡数分别增加0.11%(ER = 0.11%,95%CI = 0.03%~0.20%)和0.12%(ER = 0.12%,95%CI = 0.03%~0.20%),当日(Lag0 d)女性、 ≥ 65岁、初中及以下和非在婚居民非意外总死亡数分别增加0.17%(ER = 0.17%,95%CI = 0.05%~0.30%)、0.15%(ER = 0.15%,95%CI = 0.05%~0.25%)、0.12%(ER = 0.12%,95%CI = 0.02%~0.22%)和0.25%(ER = 0.25%,95%CI = 0.11%~0.39%);累积滞后效应分析结果显示,PM10日均浓度每升高10 μg/m3,累积滞后7d(Lag07 d)居民非意外总死亡数和循环系统疾病死亡数分别增加0.25%(ER = 0.25%,95%CI = 0.08%~0.42%)和0.26%(ER = 0.26%,95%CI = 0.03%~0.50%),累积滞后7 d(Lag07 d)女性、 ≥ 65岁、初中及以下和在婚居民非意外总死亡数分别增加0.47%(ER = 0.47%,95%CI = 0.22%~0.72%)、0.33%(ER = 0.33%,95%CI = 0.13%~0.52%)、0.25%(ER = 0.25%,95%CI = 0.06%~0.45%)和0.32%(ER = 0.32%,95%CI = 0.03%~0.61%),累积滞后6 d(Lag6 d)在婚居民非意外总死亡数增加0.34%(ER = 0.34%,95%CI = 0.07%~0.61%)。
    结论 内蒙古中西部6个典型城市PM10的暴露会增加居民的非意外总死亡和循环系统疾病死亡,且以女性、 ≥ 65岁和初中及以下文化程度的人群更为敏感。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To study the short-term exposure to ambient particulate matter less than 10 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) on daily mortality in residents of six typical cities in central and western Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (Inner Mongolia) to provide evidence for the development of air pollution control policies.
    Methods Data on daily mortality of permanent residents in six typical cities in central and western Inner Mongolia during 2017 – 2021 were collected from the Death Registration and Reporting Information System of municipal disease prevention and control centers, and data on daily meteorological conditions were collected from the municipal meteorological bureaus of the six cities, including Hohhot, Baotou, Ordos, Bayannur, Wuhai, and Alxa League. The daily average atmospheric PM10, sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O3) during the same period were calculated from the detection records of 24 national air pollutant monitoring stations in the six cities. A generalized linear model was used to quantitatively assess the relationship between PM10 exposure and daily mortality among residents of these cities, with stratified analysis by gender, age, education, and marital status.
    Results For the six cities during the 5-year period, the daily mean PM10 concentration was 89.17 ± 84.71 μg/m3; the daily mean number of total non-accidental deaths, deaths from respiratory diseases, and deaths from circulatory diseases were 71 ± 15, 10 ± 4, and 34 ± 10, respectively. Single-day lag effect analysis showed that a 10 μg/m3 increase in daily mean PM10 concentration was associated with increased total non-accidental mortality (excess risk ER = 0.11%, 95% confidence interval 95%CI: 0.03% – 0.20%) and circulatory disease mortality (ER = 0.12%, 95%CI: 0.03% – 0.20%) at lag day 0 in all residents and increased non-accidental mortality in female residents (ER = 0.17%, 95%CI: 0.05% – 0.30%), older residents ≥ 65 years (ER = 0.15%, 95%CI: 0.05% – 0.25%), residents with a junior high school education or less (ER = 0.12%, 95%CI: 0.02% – 0.22%), and unmarried residents (ER = 0.25%, 95%CI: 0.11% – 0.39%). Cumulative lag effect analysis showed that a 10 μg/m3 increase in daily mean PM10 concentration was associated with increased total non-accidental mortality (ER = 0.25%, 95%CI: 0.08% – 0.42%) and circulatory disease mortality (ER = 0.26%, 95%CI: 0.03% – 0.50%) at lag day 7 in all residents and increased non-accidental mortality in female residents (ER = 0.47%, 95%CI: 0.22% – 0.72%), older residents ≥ 65 years (ER = 0.33%, 95%CI: 0.13% – 0.52%), residents with a junior high school education or less (ER = 0.25%, 95%CI: 0.06% – 0.45%), and married residents (ER = 0.32%, 95%CI: 0.03% – 0.61%); a 10 μg/m3 increase in daily mean PM10 concentration was also associated with increased total non-accidental mortality among married residents (ER = 0.34%, 95%CI : 0.07% – 0.61%) on lag day 6.
    Conclusion Exposure to PM10 is associated with increased total non-accidental mortality and circulatory disease mortality among all residents and the increased total non-accidental mortality and circulatory disease mortality are much more significant among female residents, older residents ≥ 65 years, residents with a junior high school education or less, and unmarried residents in six typical cities in central and western Inner Mongolia.

     

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