Objective To analyze the change trend of the disease burden of injuries among Chinese residents from 1990 to 2019, and to predict the age-standardized incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALY) rates of injuries from 2020 to 2025, providing a reference for the prevention and control of injuries among the Chinese population.

Methods Data on the disease burden of injury in populations in China, Asia, and the world from 1990 to 2019 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study – 2019 (GBD 2019). Crude and age-standardized rates of incidence, mortality, years lived with disability (YLD), years of life lost (YLL), and DALY of injury were used in the descriptive analysis. A joint-point regression model was constructed to analyze the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in these rates between 1990 and 2019. In addition, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was constructed to predict the standardized rates of incidence, mortality, and DALY of injury from 2020 to 2025 in the Chinese population.

Results From 1990 to 2019, increases in the crude and age-standardized rates (1/100 000) of injury incidence (5 976.31 to 6 328.60 and 5 863.81 to 6 138.73) and YLD (461.57 to 679.01 and 511.58 to 534.88) were observed in the Chinese population, with overall rate increases of 5. 89%, 4.69%, 47.11%, and 4.56%, respectively, and the rate increases were all higher than those in the Asian and global populations; however, decreases in the crude and age-standardized rates were observed for injury mortality (74. 34 to 49.67 and 83.03 to 44.20), YLL (4215.54 to 1825.22 and 4204.05 to 1787.50), and DALY (4677.11 to 2504.23 and 4715.63 to 2322.38), with overall decreases of – 33.19%, – 46.76%, – 56.70%, – 57.48%, – 46.46%, and – 50.75%, respectively, and the rate decreases were all greater than those in the Asian and global populations. The results of Joinpoint regression model analysis show that from 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence and YLD rate of injuries in the Chinese population showed an overall increasing trend (AAPC = 0.15%, P = 0.006), while the age-standardized mortality, YLL, and DALY rate of injuries showed an overall decreasing trend (AAPC = – 2.28%, – 2.62%, and – 3.07%, all P < 0.01). The injury type that ranked first in terms of injury disease burden in the Chinese population in 1990 and 2019 was road traffic injuries, with DALYs of 13.73957 million person-years and 13.2577 million person-years, and the age-standardized DALY rates (1/100 000) of 12.327 2 and 8.595 8, respectively. For the Chinese population between 2020 and 2025, the predicted age-standardized injury incidence rate (1/100 000) ranges from 6 293.79 to 6 492.15; the predicted age-standardized mortality rate (1/100 000) ranges from 41.50 to 48.38; and the predicted age-standardized DALY rate (1/100 000) ranges from 1 850.11 to 2 234.510. The predicted age-standardized injury incidence rate for 2020 – 2025 is expected to continue to increase, while the predicted age-standardized mortality and DALY rates are expected to continue to decrease (all P < 0.05).

Conclusion The age-standardized incidence and YLD rates of injuries in the Chinese population showed an overall increasing trend from 1990 to 2019, while the age-standardized mortality, YLL, and DALY rates showed an overall decreasing trend. From 2020 to 2025, the age-standardized incidence rate of injuries will continue to increase, while the age-standardized mortality rate and DALY rate will continue to decrease.