高级检索

新疆维吾尔自治区7个死因监测点日均气温对居民非意外死亡和心脑血管系统疾病死亡YLL影响

Effect of daily average temperature on years of life lost due to non-accidental mortality and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in seven mortality surveillance sites in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region

  • 摘要:
    目的 了解新疆维吾尔自治区7个死因监测点日均气温对居民非意外死亡和心脑血管系统疾病死亡早死所致生命损失年(YLL)的影响,为减少日均气温造成的居民寿命损失提供科学依据。
    方法 收集中国疾病预防控制中心人口死亡信息报告系统中新疆维吾尔自治区乌鲁木齐市天山区、克拉玛依市克拉玛依区、哈密市伊州区、库尔勒市、和田县、阿图什市和塔城市7个死因监测点2015年1月1日—2019年12月31日上报的居民死因监测数据以及同期国家环境专业知识服务平台空气质量数据和新疆维吾尔自治区气象局气候中心气象因素数据,应用分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM)定量分析日均气温对居民YLL的影响及滞后效应,并对不同性别和年龄居民进行亚组分析以确定敏感人群。
    结果 新疆维吾尔自治区7个死因监测点2015—2019年共报告非意外死亡57 094例和心脑血管系统疾病死亡26 848例,居民非意外死亡和心脑血管系统疾病死亡每日平均YLL值分别为(795.18±210.15)年和(332.15±111.58)年。新疆维吾尔自治区7个死因监测点2015—2019年日均气温与居民非意外死亡和心脑血管系统疾病死亡的YLL值均呈一定的季节性波动,居民非意外死亡和心脑血管系统疾病死亡YLL的变化趋势与气温变化趋势相反,YLL值在1月份和12月份最高。DLNM分析结果显示,高温(>22.57℃)对总体居民YLL值的影响在暴露当日的效应值最大,日均气温每升高1℃,总体居民暴露当日非意外死亡和心脑血管疾病死亡的YLL值分别增加16.021(95%CI=10.125~21.917)年和5.821(95%CI=2.579~9.063)年;低温(< –1.04 ℃)对总体居民YLL值的影响则具有滞后性,非意外死亡和心脑血管疾病死亡分别在滞后2 d和滞后5 d的效应值最大,日均气温每降低1 ℃,居民滞后2 d非意外死亡和滞后5 d心脑血管疾病死亡的YLL值分别增加9.126(95%CI=0.872~17.053)年和2.739(95%CI=0.983~5.086)年。亚组分析结果显示,高温(>22.57℃)对男性居民和女性居民YLL值的影响在暴露当日的效应值均最大,日均气温每升高1℃,男性居民暴露当日非意外死亡的YLL值增加7.559(95%CI=3.161~11.956)年,女性居民暴露当日非意外死亡和心脑血管疾病死亡的YLL值分别增加8.462(95%CI=4.994~11.930)年和3.589(95%CI=1.862~5.315)年;低温(< –1.04 ℃)对男性居民和女性居民YLL值的影响则具有滞后性,男性居民非意外死亡在滞后3 d及女性居民非意外死亡和心脑血管疾病死亡在滞后2 d的效应值均最大,日均气温每降低1 ℃,男性居民滞后3 d非意外死亡的YLL值增加6.831(95%CI=0.657~13.625)年,女性居民滞后7 d和滞后6 d非意外死亡和心脑血管疾病死亡的YLL值分别增加4.530(95%CI=0.235~7.864)年和1.824(95%CI=0.189~3.382)年;高温(>22.57℃)对<65岁居民和≥65岁居民YLL值的影响在暴露当日的效应值均最大,日均气温每升高1℃,<65岁居民暴露当日非意外死亡的YLL值增加8.487(95%CI=3.398~13.577)年,≥65岁居民暴露当日非意外死亡和心脑血管疾病死亡的YLL值分别增加7.524(95%CI=4.949~10.099)年和3.690(95%CI=1.884~5.497)年;低温(<–1.04 ℃)对<65岁居民和≥65岁居民YLL值的影响则具有滞后性,<65岁居民非意外死亡在滞后3 d及≥65岁居民非意外死亡在暴露当日和心脑血管疾病死亡在滞后4 d的效应值均最大,日均气温每降低1 ℃,<65岁居民滞后3 d非意外死亡的YLL值增加4.235(95%CI=1.583~9.648)年,≥65岁居民暴露当日非意外死亡和滞后4 d心脑血管疾病死亡的YLL值分别增加8.277(95%CI=1.885~14.668)年和2.855(95%CI=0.273~5.192)年。
    结论 高温和低温均会增加新疆维吾尔自治区7个死因监测点居民的YLL且存在滞后效应,其中女性和≥65岁居民为敏感人群。

     

    Abstract: Objective To understand the impact of daily average temperature on years of life lost (YLL) due to non-accidental and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease deaths in seven mortality surveillance sites in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, and to provide scientific evidence for reducing the loss of life expectancy caused by daily average temperature. Methods Mortality surveillance data for residents reported from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2019, were collected from seven mortality surveillance sites (Tianshan district, Urumqi city; Karamay district, Karamay city; Yizhou district, Hami city; Korla city; Hotan county; Artux city; and Tacheng city) in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region through the China Center for Disease Control and Prevention’s Population Mortality Information Reporting System. Air quality data from the National Environmental Expertise Service Platform and meteorological data from the Climate Center of the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region Meteorological Bureau for the same period were also collected. A distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to quantitatively analyze the impact of daily average temperature on residents' YLL and the lag effect. Subgroup analyses were conducted for different genders and age groups to identify sensitive populations. Results A total of 57 094 non-accidental deaths and 26 8484 cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease deaths were reported in the seven mortality surveillance sites in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region from 2015 to 2019. The daily average YLL values for non-accidental deaths and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease deaths were (795.18±210.15) years and (332.15±111.58) years, respectively. The YLL values for both non-accidental and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease deaths showed a certain degree of seasonal fluctuation with daily average temperature from 2015 to 2019 in the seven surveillance sites. The trends in YLL for both causes of death were opposite to the temperature trend, with the highest YLL values occurring in January and December. DLNM analysis showed that the effect of high temperature (>22.57 °C) on the overall YLL was greatest on the day of exposure. For every 1°C increase in daily average temperature, the YLL due to non-accidental and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease deaths increased by 16.021 (95%CI: 10.125–21.917) years and 5.821 (95%CI: 2.579–9.063) years, respectively. The effect of low temperature (<−1.04°C) on overall YLL had a lag effect, with the maximum effect occurring at lag 2 days for non-accidental deaths and lag 5 days for cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease deaths. For every 1°C decrease in daily average temperature, the YLL due to non-accidental deaths at lag 2 days and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease deaths at lag 5 days increased by 9.126 (95%CI: 0.872–17.053) years and 2.739 (95%CI:0.983~5.086) years, respectively. Subgroup analysis showed that the effect of high temperature (>22.57 °C) on YLL was greatest on the day of exposure for both males and females. For every 1°C increase in daily average temperature, the YLL due to non-accidental deaths in males on the day of exposure increased by 7.559 (95%CI: 3.161–11.956) years, and the YLL due to non-accidental and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease deaths in females on the day of exposure increased by 8.462 (95%CI: 4.994–11.930) years and 3.589 (95%CI: 1.862–5.315) person-years, respectively. The effect of low temperature (<−1.04 °C) on YLL had a lag effect for both males and females, with the maximum effect occurring at lag 3 days for non-accidental deaths in males and at lag 2 days for non-accidental and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease deaths in females. For every 1 °C decrease in daily average temperature, the YLL due to non-accidental deaths at lag 3 days in males increased by 6.831 (95%CI: 0.657–13.625) years, and the YLL due to non-accidental and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease deaths at lag 7 days and lag 6 days in females increased by 4.530 (95%CI: 0.235–7.864) years and 1.824 (95%CI: 0.189–3.382) years, respectively. The effect of high temperature (>22.57 °C) on YLL was greatest on the day of exposure for both residents aged <65 years and ≥65 years. For every 1°C increase in daily average temperature, the YLL due to non-accidental deaths on the day of exposure increased by 8.487 (95%CI: 3.398–13.577) years for residents aged <65 years, and the YLL due to non-accidental and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease deaths on the day of exposure increased by 7.524 (95%CI: 4.949–10.099) person-years and 3.690 (95%CI: 1.884–5.497) person-years, respectively, for residents aged ≥65 years. The effect of low temperature (< −1.04 °C) on YLL had a lag effect for both residents aged <65 years and ≥65 years, with the maximum effect occurring at lag 3 days for non-accidental deaths in residents aged <65 years and on the day of exposure for non-accidental deaths and at lag 4 days for cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease deaths in residents aged ≥65 years. For every 1 °C decrease in daily average temperature, the YLL due to non-accidental deaths at lag 3 days in residents aged <65 years increased by 4.235 (95%CI: 1.583–9.648) years, and the YLL due to non-accidental deaths on the day of exposure and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease deaths at lag 4 days in residents aged ≥65 years increased by 8.277 (95%CI: 1.885–14.668) years and 2.855 (95%CI: 0.273–5.192) years, respectively. Conclusions Both high and low temperatures increase YLL in residents of the seven mortality surveillance sites in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, with a lag effect. Females and residents aged ≥65 years are sensitive populations.

     

/

返回文章
返回