Abstract:
Objective To evaluate the effectiveness of control measures for a tuberculosis (TB) outbreak in a school setting by using a dynamic transmission model.
Methods We developed a dynamic transmission model to simulate a TB outbreak in a school in Wuxi, Jiangsu province. We calibrated the model based on the observed progression of the outbreak and used it to compare the effectiveness of different control measures.
Results Using actual case data, we minimized the sum of squared errors (SSE) at a transmission rate coefficient (β) of 0.129. The basic reproduction number (R0) for this outbreak was estimated to be 10.95. Without intervention, simulations projected that the outbreak would last 24 months, resulting in 35 cumulative cases and a 70% attack rate. With case isolation alone, the outbreak duration decreased to 11 months, yielding 13 cumulative cases and a 26% attack rate. Combining case isolation with preventive therapy for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) reduced the outbreak duration to six months, resulting in five cumulative cases and a 10% attack rate.
Conclusions Dynamic transmission models are useful for evaluating the effectiveness of control measures during TB outbreaks in schools. Targeted preventive therapy for LTBI is highly effective in rapidly containing TB transmission in schools.
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