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徐州市35～75岁人群心血管病10年发病风险预测：基于China-PAR法

Prediction of the ten-year risk of cardiovascular diseases for residents aged 35–75 years old in Xuzhou city: based on the China-PAR model

    摘要
  • 摘要:
    目的  预测江苏省徐州市35～75岁居民心血管病（CVD）10年发病风险及其危险因素，为徐州市制定CVD干预措施提供参考依据。
    方法  基于“江苏省心脑血管疾病综合防控项目”2022—2023年徐州市鼓楼区、云龙区、泉山区项目点基线调查中35～75岁常住居民相关数据，通过问卷调查、体格检查及实验室检测，收集一般资料、身高、体重、腰围、血压、总胆固醇（TC）、甘油三酯（TG）、低密度脂蛋白胆固醇（LDL-C）、高密度脂蛋白胆固醇（HDL-C）等信息，应用中国动脉粥样硬化性心血管疾病风险预测（China-PAR）模型预测调查对象CVD10年发病风险。
    结果  徐州市12 256名35～75岁居民中，男性3 956人（32.28%），女性8 300人（67.72%）。男性的年龄、腰围、BMI、收缩压、舒张压、TG、吸烟率、高血压患病率、糖尿病患病率、服用降压药比例均高于女性（均P<0.05）；女性在TC、LDL-C、HDL-C、CVD家族史方面高于男性（均P<0.05）。调查对象CVD10年发病风险为7.67%，男性（10.85%）高于女性（6.31%），差异有统计学意义（P<0.01）。高危人群比例为37.73%，男性（54.60%）高于女性（29.69%），差异有统计学意义（P<0.01）。高危比例随着年龄的增长而增加，各年龄组男性高危人群比例均高于女性。CVD危险因素聚集1、2和≥3个者分别占28.24%、28.11%和26.07%。女性危险因素的聚集情况随年龄增长而增加（χ2趋势=908.35，P<0.001），男性未表现出该变化趋势（P>0.05）。
    结论 徐州市35～75岁人群CVD 10年发病风险较高，男性的发病风险、不同年龄段的高危比例及危险因素聚集情况均高于女性。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To predict the 10-year risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and its risk factors among residents aged 35–75 years old in Xuzhou City, so as to provide a scientific basis for formulating prevention and control measures for CVD.
    Methods The data of residents aged 35–75 years old in Gulou district, Yunlong district, and Quanshan district of Xuzhou city collected during the baseline survey of the Jiangsu Province Comprehensive Prevention and Control Project for Cardiovascular Diseases in 2022–2023 were used. Information such as general data, body height, body weight, waist circumference, blood pressure, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) was gathered through questionnaires, physical examinations, and laboratory tests. The prediction for ASCVD risk in China (China-PAR) model was used to assess the 10-year risk of CVD among the surveyed subjects.
    Results The 12 256 residents aged 35–75 years old in Xuzhou consisted of 3 956 (32.28%) males and 8 300 (67.72%) females. Males showed higher age, waist circumference, body mass index (BMI), systolic/diastolic blood pressure, TG, smoking rate, hypertension prevalence, diabetes prevalence, and antihypertensive medication use than females (all P < 0.05). Females exhibited higher levels of TC, LDL-C, HDL-C, and CVD family history than males (all P < 0.05). The 10-year CVD risk among participants was 7.67%, and it was higher among males (10.85%) than among females (6.31%) (P < 0.01). The proportion of high-risk populations reached 37.73%, being higher in males (54.60%) than in females (29.69%) (P < 0.01). This proportion increased with age, and males in all age groups had higher proportions of high-risk populations than females. Aggregated risk factors of 1, 2, or ≥ 3 accounted for 28.24%, 28.11%, and 26.07%, respectively. The aggregation of risk factors in females increased with age (χ2trend = 908.35, P < 0.001), while no such trend was observed in males (P > 0.05).
    Conclusions The 10-year CVD risk is high in the residents aged 35–75 years old in Xuzhou city. Males show higher risk, proportion of high-risk populations in different age groups, and aggregation of risk factors than females.

     

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