高级检索

2014—2023年甘肃省炭疽发病情况:基于空间聚集性分析

The incidence of anthrax in Gansu province from 2014 to 2023: an analysis based on spatial clustering

  • 摘要:
    目的 分析2014—2023年甘肃省炭疽发病情况和空间聚集性,为炭疽防控策略的制定提供参考依据。
    方法 收集中国疾病预防控制信息系统“监测报告管理”模块中甘肃省2014年1月1日—2023年12月31日报告的883例炭疽发病病例相关数据,采用Joinpoint回归模型分析炭疽发病率趋势变化,并应用ArcGIS 10.8.2软件和FleXScan 3.1.2 软件进行全局空间自相关和空间扫描分析。
    结果 2014—2023年甘肃省报告的883例炭疽病例均为皮肤炭疽,2014、2015、2016、2017、2018、2019、2020、2021、2022和2023年的发病数依次为93、104、128、117、66、41、37、84、93和120例;发病率分别为0.36/10 万、0.40/10 万、0.49/10 万、0.45/10 万、0.25/10 万、0.16/10 万、0.14/10 万、0.34/10 万、0.35/10 万和0.48/10 万,发病率呈先升后降再上升趋势,但差异无统计学意义(P>0.05);甘肃省炭疽全年均有发病,发病高峰为每年7—10月,共报告501例,占全部炭疽发病数的56.74%;男女性发病比为1.46:1,以20~49岁青壮年居多(占68.74%),牧民发病例数最多(占82.33%),甘南州发病数居全省首位(占92.19%);全局空间自相关分析结果显示,2014—2023年甘肃省炭疽发病在空间上存在一定的聚集性,2014、2015、2016、2017、2018、2019、2020、2021、2022和2023年全局Moran′s I指数依次为0.438、0.592、0.590、0.639、0.577、0.511、0.530、0.091、0.565和0.357(均P<0.05);FleXScan 3.1.2软件扫描出3个聚集区,主要位于甘肃省西南部甘南州及定西市的部分县区,一级聚集区为甘南州玛曲县、碌曲县和夏河县,主要为牧区,报告病例数占80.63%;二级聚集区2个,分别为甘南州合作市、卓尼县和迭部县以及定西市岷县和甘南州临潭县,报告病例数分别占9.51%和4.98%。
    结论 甘肃省2014—2023年炭疽发病水平较高且近3年有所上升。男性、青壮年和牧民为炭疽防控的重点人群。一级聚集区主要位于甘肃省西南部的甘南州玛曲县、碌曲县和夏河县,应全面加强上述县的监测工作。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To analyze the incidence and spatial clustering of anthrax in Gansu province from 2014 to 2023, and to provide evidence for anthrax prevention and control.
    Methods Data on 883 reported anthrax cases in Gansu province from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2023 were collected through the “Surveillance and Reporting Management” module of the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System. The Joinpoint regression model was employed to analyze the trend of anthrax incidence. ArcGIS 10.8.2 and FleXScan 3.1.2 were used for global spatial autocorrelation and spatial scanning, respectively.
    Results From 2014 to 2023, a total of 883 skin anthrax cases were reported in Gansu province. The number of cases in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 was 93, 104, 128, 117, 66, 41, 37, 84, 93, and 120, respectively. The incidences of anthrax were 0.36/100 000, 0.40/100 000, 0.49/100 000, 0.45/100 000, 0.25/100 000, 0.16/100 000, 0.14/100 000, 0.34/100 000, 0.35/100 000, and 0.48/100 000, respectively. The incidence increased first, subsequently decreased, and then increased, but the difference was not statistically significant (P > 0.05). Anthrax cases in Gansu province occurred throughout the year, and the peak of incidence occurred from July to October each year, when 501 cases were reported, accounting for 56.74% of the total number of anthrax cases. The ratio of male-to-female cases was 1.46:1. The disease predominantly affected young adults aged 20–49 (68.74%). The majority (82.33%) of cases occurred among herdsmen. The number of cases in Gannan prefecture ranked the first in the province (92.19%). The results of global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that there was certain spatial clustering of anthrax incidence in Gansu province from 2014 to 2023. The global Moran′s I indices in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023, were 0.438, 0.592, 0.590, 0.639, 0.577, 0.511, 0.530, 0.091, 0.565, and 0.357, respectively (all P < 0.05). FleXScan 3.1.2 software scanned 3 clusters, mainly located in some counties and districts of Gannan prefecture in the southwest of Gansu province and Dingxi city. The first-level cluster area included Maqu county, Luqu county, and Xiahe county in Gannan prefecture, mainly pastoral areas, accounting for 80.63% of the reported cases. Two secondary cluster areas were Hezuo city, Zhuoni county, and Diebu county in Gannan prefecture as well as Minxian county in Dingxi city and Lintan county in Gannan prefecture, accounting for 9.51% and 4.98% of cases, respectively.
    Conclusions The incidence of anthrax in Gansu province from 2014 to 2023 was high and has increased in the past three years. Males, young adults, and herdsmen were the key populations for anthrax prevention and control. The primary cluster areas concentrated in Maqu county, Luqu county, and Xiahe county of Gannan prefecture in the southwest of Gansu province. It is necessary to conduct comprehensive monitoring in the aforementioned counties.

     

/

返回文章
返回