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基于德尔菲法的浙江省健康乡村监测指标体系构建

Construction of a healthy village monitoring index system in Zhejiang province based on the Delphi method

  • 摘要:
    目的 构建浙江省健康乡村监测指标体系,为主管部门开展健康乡村建设成效监测工作提供科学参考。
    方法 于2024年5—9月,在浙江省11个设区市随机抽取1个健康乡村进行现场调研,评估浙江省健康乡村建设现状,结合政策文献分析和专家讨论结果建立浙江省健康乡村监测指标池;于2024年10—12月运用德尔菲法对20名相关领域专家进行2轮咨询,确定监测指标体系;运用层次分析法完成指标体系的权重设计。
    结果 2轮德尔菲咨询的专家积极系数分别为86.96%和100%,提出意见的专家比例分别为70%和20%,专家权威系数分别为0.848和0.878,指标重要性的肯德尔和谐系数分别为0.386和0.419,指标可操作性的肯德尔和谐系数分别为0.350和0.369(均P<0.05);层次分析判断矩阵的一致性比率均CR<0.1。最终形成包括6项一级指标、17项二级指标、55项三级指标的浙江省健康乡村监测指标体系,其中一级指标权重为0.073 8~0.253 5,二级指标组合权重为0.022 0~0.126 8,三级指标组合权重为0.001 5~0.084 5。
    结论 本研究构建的浙江省健康乡村监测指标体系符合浙江省现阶段健康乡村建设特点,为主管部门开展建设成效监测工作提供参考。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To construct a healthy village monitoring index system in Zhejiang province and provide scientific reference for the competent departments to monitor the progress in healthy village construction.
    Methods From May to September 2024, one healthy village was randomly selected from each of the 11 prefecture-level cities in Zhejiang province for on-site research to assess the current status of healthy village construction, and a pool of indexes for monitoring healthy village in Zhejiang province was established by combining the analysis of the related policies and literature and the results of expert discussion. From October to December 2024, the Delphi method was employed to carry out two rounds of consultation with 20 experts in related fields to determine the monitoring index system. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was adopted to complete the weighting design of the index system.
    Results The first and second rounds of Delphi expert consultation showed the positive coefficients of experts being 86.96% and 100%, the proportion of experts giving opinions being 70% and 20%, and the coefficients of expert authority being 0.848 and 0.878, the Kendall’s harmony coefficients of index importance being 0.386 and 0.419, and the Kendall’s harmony coefficients of index operability being 0.350 and 0.369 (all P < 0.05). The consistency ratio (CR) of the AHP judgment matrix was less than 0.1. Finally, a healthy village monitoring index system of Zhejiang province was formed, consisting of 6 first-level indicators, 17 second-level indicators, and 55 third-level indicators, which showed the weights of 0.073 8 to 0.253 5, 0.022 0 to 0.126 8, and 0.001 5 to 0.084 5, respectively.
    Conclusions The healthy village monitoring index system in Zhejiang province that is constructed in this study is in line with the characteristics of healthy village construction in Zhejiang province and can provide reference for the competent authorities to carry out the monitoring of construction progress.

     

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