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中国疾控机构人员配置优化分析:基于多目标遗传算法

Optimization of personnel allocation in disease prevention and control institutions of China based on multi-objective genetic algorithm

  • 摘要:
    目的 针对当前全国疾病预防控制中心(简称“疾控”)人员配置存在的总量不足与区域不公问题,构建需求导向的公平性优化模型,为科学配置提供决策支持。
    方法 基于2006—2019年省级面板数据,运用熵权法融合传染病维度(鼠疫、霍乱等五类重点传染病发病率/死亡率)与人口维度(密度、抚养比、地形起伏度等)指标,构建地区优先级指数;将其嵌入人口加权基尼系数函数,提出改进的公平性度量指标;建立以最小化公平性系数和最小化人员调整量为双目标的多目标优化模型,采用非支配排序遗传(NSGA-Ⅱ)算法求解帕累托最优解集。
    结果 优先级指数显示四川省、新疆维吾尔自治区、广西壮族自治区等省(自治区、直辖市)为疾控人员高需求地区,通过帕累托前沿获得80组最优解,揭示公平性与实施成本的显著权衡关系,最大化公平性(基尼系数值降低0.066 8)的代价是更大的调整量(19 410人);而最小化调整量(1 660人)仅一定程度缓解公平性问题(基尼系数值降低0.014 4)。
    结论 本研究创新性地将需求差异量化纳入资源配置公平性评估,结合多目标遗传算法生成的帕累托解集,为差异化疾控人员配置策略提供量化工具。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To construct a demand-oriented fairness optimization model to provide decision-making support for scientific allocation in response to the shortage and regional inequity in personnel allocation in disease prevention and control institutions of China.
    Methods On the basis of the provincial panel data from 2006 to 2019, the entropy weight method was used to integrate the indicators of infectious disease dimension (morbidity/mortality of five key infectious diseases, such as plague and cholera) and population dimension (such as density, dependency ratio, and topographic relief) for building the regional priority index. The index was embedded into the population-weighted Gini coefficient function, and thus the improved fairness metrics was proposed. A multi-objective optimization model with the dual objectives of minimizing the fairness coefficient and minimizing the amount of personnel adjustment was established, and the nondominated sorting genetic algorithm Ⅱ (NSGA-Ⅱ) was used to solve the Pareto optimal solution sets.
    Results The priority index showed that Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Guangxi were the areas with high demand for disease prevention and control personnel. Through the Pareto frontier, 80 sets of optimal solutions were obtained, revealing a significant trade-off between fairness and implementation cost. The cost of maximizing fairness (reducing the Gini coefficient value by 0.066 8) was the largest adjustment amount (19 410 people). It was possible to only alleviate the fairness issue to a certain extent (reducing the Gini coefficient by 0.014 4) with the minimum adjustment amount (1 660 people).
    Conclusions This study innovatively incorporates the quantification of demand differences into the assessment of resource allocation fairness and employees a multi-objective genetic algorithm to generate the Pareto solution sets, providing a quantitative tool for differentiated personnel allocation strategies in disease prevention and control institutions.

     

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