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1982—2015年中国成年人超重与肥胖趋势及增速分析：基于全国营养调查及健康状况监测数据

Trends and growth rates of overweight and obesity among Chinese adults from 1982 to 2015: based on the national nutrition surveys and health monitoring data

    摘要
  • 摘要:
    目的 分析1982—2015年中国成年人超重与肥胖的长期趋势、增长率及人群差异，为精准防控提供依据。
    方法 利用1982、1992、2002、2012和2015年全国营养调查及健康状况监测数据，计算加权超重率与肥胖率，采用逆方差加权线性回归分析长期趋势并进行预测，使用几何增长模型计算不同时期的几何年均增长率（CAGR）。
    结果 1982—2015年，中国成年人超重率从11.0%升至33.3%，肥胖率从1.9%升至14.1%，预计2030年将分别达43.2%和17.3%。超重与肥胖的增长过程均呈现显著的时期波动与人群异质性：超重与肥胖的CAGR均在2002—2012年放缓（分别为2.1%和4.8%）后，于2012—2015年回升（分别为3.3%和7.9%）。1982—2015年，男性超重与肥胖的CAGR均持续高于女性，且在2012—2015年最为突出（男性肥胖CAGR达10.5%，女性为5.4%）。1982—2015年45～59岁年龄组超重率始终最高，且自2002年起肥胖率超过≥60岁组居于首位（2015年超重率40.3%，肥胖率16.2%）；18～44岁青年组虽超重率和肥胖率尚低，但其超重与肥胖的CAGR长期处于各年龄组领先水平（2012—2015年CAGR分别为4.0%和10.2%）。西部地区成为新增长高地，2012—2015年其超重与肥胖CAGR分别高达8.0%和13.4%。
    结论 中国成年人超重与肥胖流行持续加剧，增长模式已从普遍性上升转变为由性别、年龄和地域因素驱动的结构性增长。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To analyze the long-term trends, growth rates, and population disparities of overweight and obesity among Chinese adults from 1982 to 2015, thereby providing evidence for targeted prevention and control.
    Methods This study used data from the national nutrition surveys and health monitoring conducted in 1982, 1992, 2002, 2012, and 2015. The weighted prevalence of overweight and obesity was calculated. Long-term trends were analyzed by inverse variance-weighted linear regression for prediction, and the geometric growth model was employed to calculate the compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) in different periods.
    Results From 1982 to 2015, the prevalence of overweight among Chinese adults increased from 11.0% to 33.3%, while that of obesity rose from 1.9% to 14.1%. Projections indicated these figures would reach 43.2% and 17.3%, respectively, in 2030. The increasing trends in both overweight and obesity prevalence show significant temporal fluctuations and population disparities: The CAGRs for both overweight and obesity decelerated during 2002–2012 (2.1% and 4.8%, respectively) but rebounded in 2012–2015 (3.3% and 7.9%, respectively). During 1982–2015, the CAGRs for both overweight and obesity were consistently higher in men than in women, with the disparity being most pronounced during 2012–2015 (the CAGR of obesity reached 10.5% in men versus 5.4% in women). The 45–59 age group consistently had the highest prevalence of overweight, and it surpassed the ≥60 age group to become the group with the highest obesity prevalence (40.3% for overweight and 16.2% for obesity in 2015) after 2002. The 18–44 age group, despite its currently lower prevalence, exhibited the highest CAGRs for both overweight and obesity across most periods, particularly surging to the top during 2012–2015 (CAGR: 4.0% for overweight and 10.2% for obesity). The western region emerged as a new growth hotspot, with CAGRs for overweight and obesity soaring to 8.0% and 13.4%, respectively, during 2012–2015.
    Conclusions The epidemic of overweight and obesity among Chinese adults continues to worsen. The growth pattern has shifted from a generalized increase to a structural shift driven by gender, age, and geographical factors.

     

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