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王遵伍, 刘慧君, 王莹. 中国艾滋病流行的空间分布及集聚特征[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2019, 35(12): 1593-1597. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1124457
引用本文: 王遵伍, 刘慧君, 王莹. 中国艾滋病流行的空间分布及集聚特征[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2019, 35(12): 1593-1597. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1124457
Zun-wu WANG, Hui-jun LIU, Ying WANG. Spatial distribution and clustering characteristics of AIDS epidemic in China, 2005 – 2017[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2019, 35(12): 1593-1597. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1124457
Citation: Zun-wu WANG, Hui-jun LIU, Ying WANG. Spatial distribution and clustering characteristics of AIDS epidemic in China, 2005 – 2017[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2019, 35(12): 1593-1597. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1124457

中国艾滋病流行的空间分布及集聚特征

Spatial distribution and clustering characteristics of AIDS epidemic in China, 2005 – 2017

  • 摘要:
      目的  分析中国2005 — 2017年31个省、市、自治区艾滋病发病率的空间分布和集聚特征,为制定区域化艾滋病防控策略和合理分配防治资源提供参考依据。
      方法  收集2006 — 2018年《中国卫生统计年鉴》、《中国卫生和计划生育统计年鉴》和《中国卫生健康统计年鉴》中的艾滋病发病数据,应用趋势性χ2检验和分级地图展示艾滋病发病率的流行趋势和空间分布,并运用全局和局部空间自相关分析探讨发病率的空间关联性和集聚特征。
      结果  中国2005 — 2017年艾滋病发病率总体呈上升趋势,区域分布呈西高东低、南高北低态势,部分地区呈现高低波动,高发区域主要分布在西南地区和新疆,且由南向北、自西向东不断扩大。全局空间自相关分析Moran′s I值从0.022上升至0.386,表明艾滋病发病率存在明显的空间正自相关,且相关性越来越强。局部空间自相关分析结果显示,2005年,艾滋病发病率仅在广西和河南呈现出“高 – 低”集聚特征;2008 — 2011年,在广西和云南呈现“高 – 高”集聚特征;2014 — 2017年,广西、云南、四川、重庆和贵州均成为“高 – 高”集聚区域。
      结论  中国艾滋病发病率不断上升,空间正相关性和空间集聚特征更加明显,局域发病率高高集聚区域正在扩大,应重点防控艾滋病高发区域及其周围地区。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective  To analyze spatial distribution and clustering characteristics of AIDS incidence in 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China from 2005 to 2017, and to provide evidences for formulating regional AIDS prevention and control measures and rationally allocating the prevention and control resources.
      Methods  Data on AIDS incidence between 2005 and 2017 across China were extracted from China Health Statistical Yearbook, China Health and Family Planning Statistical Yearbook and China Health Statistical Yearbook. Chi-square test for trend and hierarchical map were used to display the epidemic trend and spatial distribution of AIDS incidence. Global and local spatial autocorrelation were used to identify the spatial correlation and spatial clustering features of AIDS incidence.
      Results  From 2005 to 2017, the incidence of AIDS in China exhibited a increasing trend generally, with a regional distribution of being higher in Western and Southern China and lower in Eastern and Northern China. High-incidence areas were mainly observed in southwest regions and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, and are gradually spreading from the South to the North and from the West to the East. The global Moran′s I value increased from 0.022 to 0.386, indicating that AIDS incidence was significantly and positively auto-correlated and there was a increasing trend for the spatial correlation. Local spatial autocorrelation analyses showed that there was a high-low cluster of AIDS incidence only in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region and Henan province in 2005; from 2008 to 2011, a high-high cluster in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region and Yunnan province appeared; between 2014 and 2017, high-high clusters were identified in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region and Yunnan, Sichuan, Guizhou province and Chongqing municipality.
      Conclusion  As the incidence of AIDS is continuously rising in China, the features of positive spatial correlation and spatial cluster become more obvious, and the high-high clusters of AIDS incidence are regionally expanding. Therefore, the prevention and control of AIDS incidence should focus on high incidence regions and its surroundings.

     

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