2004 — 2018年中国肺结核病时间及空间变动趋势分析

楚男; 高倩倩; 周成超

doi:10.11847/zgggws1135003

2004 — 2018年中国肺结核病时间及空间变动趋势分析

Trends in spatiotemporal distribution of pulmonary tuberculosis morbidity and mortality in China: 2004 – 2018

摘要

摘要:
目的研究2004 — 2018年我国肺结核病的时间和空间特征（时空特征），分析时空变动趋势，为进一步研究结核病的致病因素和防治策略提供理论依据。
方法收集2004 — 2018年我国各省肺结核病监测数据和各省的人口资料，按照时间平均划分为3个阶段（2004 — 2008、2009 — 2013、2014 — 2018年），利用Excel 2010软件分析中国肺结核病发病的时间特征，Stata 14.0软件进行空间自相关分析。
结果 2004 — 2018年中国累计报告肺结核病1481.6万例，年平均报告发病率74人/10万，年平均报告死亡率0.2人/10万，不同地区发病率分布存在空间自相关。
结论肺结核病发病率总体上呈现下降趋势，空间分布上存在聚集性，地域差别明显。

Abstract:
Objective To explore spatiotemporal distribution of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) morbidity and mortality and their changing trend in China from 2004 to 2018 and to provide evidence for conducting relevant studies and developing strategies on TB prevention and treatment.
Methods Nationwide data of 2004 – 2018 on TB surveillance were collected and demographic data of the same period were extracted from China Statistical Yearbook. The 15-year period was divided into three stages. The spatial characteristics of TB morbidity was analyzed with Excel 2010 software and Stata 14.0 was used to analyze spatial autocorrelation.
Results During the period, totally 14 816 329 TB incidents were reported in China, with an average incidence rate of 73.9029/100 000 and an average annual reported mortality of 0.2114/100 000. Spatial autocor-relation of TB morbidity in different regions was observed.
Conclusion During 2004 – 2018 in China, the incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis was decreasing generally and there were aggregations and significant regional differences in TB morbidity.

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