Application of agent-based modeling method in prediction of non-communicable chronic diseases: a review
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摘要: 慢性非传染性疾病(慢性病)作为全球的首要健康威胁,在全球范围内造成了日益沉重的疾病负担。与传统统计模型相比,基于主体的模型不再着眼于拟合整体的集中特点,而是基于个体建模来模拟个体在个体间的交互作用与环境对个体影响下发生的变化,从而模拟每个个体的特征变化,进而模拟人群的特征,其允许人与环境的特征以及它们的相互作用随时间而变化,并能模拟人与环境的特征随时间变化的动态过程,为此基于主体的模型具有模拟更加接近真实情况的复杂问题的能力。本文从基于主体模型的结构与特点以及该模型在慢性病预测中的应用和局限性等方面进行了综述,旨在为该模型在慢性病领域的预测及模拟应用提供理论与经验支撑。
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关键词:
- 基于主体模型 /
- 慢性非传染性疾病(慢性病) /
- 预测 /
- 应用
Abstract: Non - communicable chronic diseases (NCDs), as a primary global health threat, have caused an increasingly heavy burden all over the world. Compared with traditional statistical model, the agent - based model no longer focuses on fitting general characteristics, but to simulate individual changes under the interaction between individuals and environmental influence on individuals by building individual - based models for simulating the characteristics of a population. By including time - dependent changes in characteristics of human and environment and their interactions, the agent - based model could be used to simulate dynamic changing process of changes in characteristics of human and environment with time. Therefore, the agent - based model can be adopted to simulate complex problems closer to the real situation. The study introduced the structure and characteristics of the agent - based model and reviewed the application and limitations of the model in prediction of NCDs prevalence to provide theoretical and empirical support for the application of the model in NCDs prevention and control.-
Key words:
- agent-based model /
- non-communicable chronic disease /
- prediction /
- application
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