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亚洲5国居民1990 — 2019年特应性皮炎发病 趋势年龄–时期–队列分析

樊文龙 陈东宇 王红心 杨晓雨 何玉清

樊文龙, 陈东宇, 王红心, 杨晓雨, 何玉清. 亚洲5国居民1990 — 2019年特应性皮炎发病 趋势年龄–时期–队列分析[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2023, 39(5): 650-655. doi: 10.11847/zgggws1138656
引用本文: 樊文龙, 陈东宇, 王红心, 杨晓雨, 何玉清. 亚洲5国居民1990 — 2019年特应性皮炎发病 趋势年龄–时期–队列分析[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2023, 39(5): 650-655. doi: 10.11847/zgggws1138656
FAN Wenlong, CHEN Dongyu, WANG Hongxin, . Trends in incidence of atopic dermatitis among residents of five Asian countries, 1990 – 2019: an age-period-cohort analysis[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2023, 39(5): 650-655. doi: 10.11847/zgggws1138656
Citation: FAN Wenlong, CHEN Dongyu, WANG Hongxin, . Trends in incidence of atopic dermatitis among residents of five Asian countries, 1990 – 2019: an age-period-cohort analysis[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2023, 39(5): 650-655. doi: 10.11847/zgggws1138656

亚洲5国居民1990 — 2019年特应性皮炎发病 趋势年龄–时期–队列分析

doi: 10.11847/zgggws1138656
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金(81773312);广东省“扬帆计划引进紧缺拔尖”人才项目(201433005)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    樊文龙(1996 – ),男,江西南昌人,硕士在读,研究方向:流行病与卫生统计学

    通信作者:

    何玉清,E-mail:dr.hyq@hotmail.com

  • 中图分类号: R 751;R 195

Trends in incidence of atopic dermatitis among residents of five Asian countries, 1990 – 2019: an age-period-cohort analysis

  • 摘要:   目的  了解中国和亚洲4个发达国家居民1990 — 2019年特应性皮炎(AD)的发病趋势及年龄、时期、出生队列对AD发病率的影响,为我国AD的预防控制提供参考依据。  方法  收集2019年全球疾病负担研究(GBD 2019)数据库中1990 — 2019年中国、日本、韩国、以色列和新加坡亚洲5国居民AD发病率相关数据,采用年估计变化百分比(EAPC)描述AD发病率的变化趋势,并构建年龄 – 时期 – 队列(APC)模型分析AD发病率的年龄、时期、出生队列效应及其对发病率的风险。  结果  1990 — 2019年中国居民AD年龄标化发病率逐年递增,EAPC值为0.0212%(95%CI = 0.0077%~0.0347%);而日本、韩国、以色列和新加坡居民AD年龄标化发病率均逐年递减,EAPC值依次为 − 0.0433%(95%CI = − 0.0655%~− 0.0211%)、 − 0.0206%(95%CI = − 0.0380%~− 0.0032%)、 − 0.0073%(95%CI = − 0.0077% ~− 0.0069%)和− 0.0276%(95%CI = − 0.0452%~− 0.0099%)。APC模型分析结果显示,0~4岁和70~94岁居民是亚洲5国AD发病的高危人群;中国居民AD发病风险随时期推移而增加、随出生年份推进而下降,而日本、韩国、以色列和新加坡4个亚洲发达国家居民AD发病风险则随时期推移而下降、随出生年份推进而上升。  结论  中国居民1990 — 2019年AD的发病率逐年增加,较亚洲其他发达国家AD的防治工作需进一步完善,尤其应重点关注儿童和老年人AD的预防和控制。
  • 图  1  亚洲五国居民1990 — 2019年AD年龄标化发病率变化趋势

    图  2  中国居民1990 — 2019年年龄、时期、出生队列AD发病风险变化趋势

    图  6  新加坡居民1990 — 2019年年龄、时期、出生队列AD发病风险变化趋势

    图  3  日本居民1990 — 2019年年龄、时期、出生队列AD发病风险变化趋势

    图  4  韩国居民1990 — 2019年年龄、时期、出生队列AD发病风险变化趋势

    图  5  以色列居民1990 — 2019年年龄、时期、出生队列AD发病风险变化趋势

    表  1  亚洲五国居民1990 — 2019年AD发病率APC模型的效应系数

    项目中国日本韩国以色列新加坡
    年龄效应(岁)
      0~4 0.6156 a 2.1046 a 1.9784 a 1.9340 a 1.9643 a
      5~9 − 0.2351 a 0.5706 a 0.4960 a 0.4389 a 0.5080 a
     10~14 − 0.4857 a − 0.2636 a − 0.2216 a − 0.2593 a − 0.1837 a
     15~19 − 0.2312 a − 0.5398 a − 0.4758 a − 0.4602 a − 0.4244 a
     20~24 0.0171 − 0.5594 a − 0.5207 a − 0.4090 a − 0.4618 a
     25~29 0.0684 a − 0.4983 a − 0.4540 a − 0.3281 a − 0.4335 a
     30~34 − 0.0280 − 0.4288 a − 0.4155 a − 0.3368 a − 0.4156 a
     35~39 − 0.1482 a − 0.3735 a − 0.3919 a − 0.3947 a − 0.4014 a
     40~44 −0.1801 a − 0.3346 a − 0.3561 a − 0.4134 a − 0.3614 a
     45~49 − 0.1335 a − 0.3410 a − 0.3424 a − 0.4135 a − 0.3451 a
     50~54 − 0.0021 − 0.2733 a − 0.2809 a − 0.3835 a − 0.2886 a
     55~59 0.0508 a − 0.1759 a − 0.1851 a − 0.3435 a − 0.2068 a
     60~64 0.0317 − 0.0802 a − 0.0794 a − 0.2387 a − 0.1176 a
     65~69 0.0320 0.0311 0.0277 − 0.0016 − 0.0173
     70~74 0.0641 a 0.1065 a 0.0978 a 0.1988 a 0.0651 a
     75~79 0.1036 a 0.1429 a 0.1517 a 0.2579 a 0.1332 a
     80~84 0.1264 a 0.2161 a 0.2277 a 0.2926 a 0.2181 a
     85~89 0.1504 a 0.3273 a 0.3342 a 0.3977 a 0.3356 a
     90~94 0.1839 a 0.3695 a 0.4100 a 0.4624 a 0.4329 a
    时期效应(年份)
     1990 — 1994 − 0.0128 0.0176 0.0192 0.0141 0.0262 a
     1995 — 1999 − 0.0097 0.0110 0.0121 0.0082 0.0155
     2000 — 2004 − 0.0030 0.0032 0.0038 0.0028 0.0091
     2005 — 2009 0.0037 − 0.0037 − 0.0046 − 0.0027 − 0.0025
     2010 — 2014 0.0083 − 0.0103 − 0.0117 − 0.0085 − 0.0211
     2015 — 2019 0.0135 − 0.0179 − 0.0188 − 0.0141 − 0.0271 a
    出生队列效应(年份)
     1900 — 1904 0.0502 − 0.0763 − 0.0681 − 0.0553 − 0.0712
     1905 — 1909 0.0493 − 0.0672 a − 0.0584 − 0.0498 − 0.0813 a
     1910 — 1914 0.0455 − 0.0585 a − 0.0496 − 0.0454 − 0.0781 a
     1915 — 1919 0.0411 − 0.0505 a − 0.0438 − 0.0398 − 0.0574 a
     1920 — 1924 0.0386 − 0.0408 − 0.0380 − 0.0350 − 0.0517 a
     1925 — 1929 0.0334 − 0.0361 − 0.0291 − 0.0270 − 0.0418
     1930 — 1934 0.0265 − 0.0338 − 0.0233 − 0.0220 − 0.0292
     1935 — 1939 0.0180 − 0.0291 − 0.0259 − 0.0183 − 0.0201
     1940 — 1944 0.0081 − 0.0224 − 0.0243 − 0.0158 − 0.0082
     1945 — 1949 0.0061 − 0.0161 − 0.0231 − 0.0134 − 0.0119
     1950 — 1954 0.0050 − 0.0106 − 0.0187 − 0.0077 − 0.0157
     1955 — 1959 0.0020 − 0.0048 − 0.0095 − 0.0007 − 0.0072
     1960 — 1964 − 0.0038 0.0028 0.0009 0.0035 − 0.0154
     1965 — 1969 − 0.0107 0.0089 0.0095 0.0058 0.0038
     1970 — 1974 − 0.0182 0.0150 0.0169 0.0098 − 0.0359
     1975 — 1979 − 0.0160 0.0205 0.0211 0.0133 0.0243
     1980 — 1984 − 0.0141 0.0258 0.0245 0.0180 − 0.0125
     1985 — 1989 − 0.0132 0.0325 0.0250 0.0232 0.0425
     1990 — 1994 − 0.0204 0.0424 a 0.0301 0.0316 0.0373
     1995 — 1999 − 0.0347 0.0514 a 0.0439 a 0.0343 0.0745 a
     2000 — 2004 − 0.0372 0.0604 a 0.0543 a 0.0397 0.0740 a
     2005 — 2009 − 0.0423 0.0642 a 0.0513 a 0.0459 a 0.0741 a
     2010 — 2014 − 0.0561 0.0608 a 0.0572 a 0.0507 a 0.0872 a
     2015 — 2019 − 0.0570 0.0617 a 0.0771 a 0.0542 a 0.1201 a
      注:a P < 0.05。
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  • 接收日期:  2022-03-28
  • 网络出版日期:  2023-02-24
  • 刊出日期:  2023-05-10

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