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张欣怡, 郭桐桐, 胥泽文, 赵晓晴, 嵇丽红, 董志伟, 郑文贵, 井淇. “一带一路”沿线主要国家失智症疾病负担和归因风险因素分析[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2024, 40(5): 602-608. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1143559
引用本文: 张欣怡, 郭桐桐, 胥泽文, 赵晓晴, 嵇丽红, 董志伟, 郑文贵, 井淇. “一带一路”沿线主要国家失智症疾病负担和归因风险因素分析[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2024, 40(5): 602-608. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1143559
ZHANG Xinyi, GUO Tongtong, XU Zewen, ZHAO Xiaoqing, JI Lihong, DONG Zhiwei, ZHENG Wengui, JING Qi. Disease burden and attributable risk factors of dementia in 13 countries along the Belt and Road Initiative: an analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2024, 40(5): 602-608. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1143559
Citation: ZHANG Xinyi, GUO Tongtong, XU Zewen, ZHAO Xiaoqing, JI Lihong, DONG Zhiwei, ZHENG Wengui, JING Qi. Disease burden and attributable risk factors of dementia in 13 countries along the Belt and Road Initiative: an analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2024, 40(5): 602-608. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1143559

“一带一路”沿线主要国家失智症疾病负担和归因风险因素分析

Disease burden and attributable risk factors of dementia in 13 countries along the Belt and Road Initiative: an analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

  • 摘要:
    目的 了解“一带一路”沿线主要国家失智症疾病负担,预测中国失智症流行趋势,为制定失智症防控策略提供理论依据。
    方法 收集全球疾病负担研究(GBD)2019版数据库中“一带一路”沿线主要国家的失智症疾病负担数据,采用估计年百分比变化(EAPC)描述各国发病、死亡、伤残调整寿命年(DALY)的标化率趋势;比较2019年不同性别和地区失智症风险因素的死亡归因占比;运用R语言建立ARIMA模型预测2020 — 2029年中国失智症的发病和死亡情况。
    结果 1990 — 2019年,中国失智症的标化发病率从90.44/10万增加至103.83/10万,标化发病率EAPC = 0.33%,在13个“一带一路”沿线主要国家中增幅最高,上升趋势最为显著;失智症标化死亡率和标化DALY率增速最快的是印度,EAPC分别为0.76%和0.53%。ARIMA模型预测结果显示,2020 — 2029年,中国失智症的标化发病率预计增长2.3%;标化死亡率则呈下降趋势,预计降低1.3%。
    结论 1990年以来,大部分“一带一路”沿线主要国家的失智症疾病负担不断增加。沿线各国要尽快制定适宜的失智症防治规划,将其纳入公共卫生重点领域优先应对。我国应发挥在共建“一带一路”中的引领作用,促进跨国和跨区域失智症领域的交流与合作。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To describe the disease burden of dementia in thirteen countries along the Belt and Road Initiative and to predict the epidemiological trend of dementia in China to provide evidence for the development of dementia prevention and control strategies.
    Methods Data of the disease burden of dementia from 1990 to 2019 in 13 countries along the Belt and Road Initiative were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was taken to describe the changing trend in the standardized rate of dementia incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for each country; gender-specific dementia mortality attributable to major risk factors in 2019 was estimated and compared for the countries. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was constructed using the R language to predict dementia incidence and mortality in China from 2020 to 2029.
    Results From 1990 to 2019, the standardized incidence rate (1/100 000) of dementia in China increased from 90.44 to 103.83, with an EAPC of 0.33%, the highest increase among the 13 countries along the Belt and Road Initiative, showing the most significant upward trend. The fastest growth in standardized mortality rate and standardized DALYs rate was found in India, with EAPCs of 0.76% and 0.53%, respectively. The ARIMA model predicts that from 2020 to 2029, the standardized incidence rate of dementia in China will increase by 2.3%, while the standardized mortality rate will decrease by 1.3%.
    Conclusion Since 1990, the disease burden of dementia has been steadily increasing in most of the 13 countries along the Belt and Road Initiative. These countries should urgently formulate appropriate dementia prevention and treatment plans and prioritize them in the public health sector.

     

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