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周脉耕, 杨功焕. 灰色数列GM(1, 1)模型在心脑血管疾病死亡预测中的应用[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2002, 18(5): 625-627. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2002-18-05-72
引用本文: 周脉耕, 杨功焕. 灰色数列GM(1, 1)模型在心脑血管疾病死亡预测中的应用[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2002, 18(5): 625-627. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2002-18-05-72
ZHOU Mai-geng, YANG Gong-huan. Grey Series GM(1, 1)Model in Prediction of Cardiocerebrovascular Disease[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2002, 18(5): 625-627. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2002-18-05-72
Citation: ZHOU Mai-geng, YANG Gong-huan. Grey Series GM(1, 1)Model in Prediction of Cardiocerebrovascular Disease[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2002, 18(5): 625-627. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2002-18-05-72

灰色数列GM(1, 1)模型在心脑血管疾病死亡预测中的应用

Grey Series GM(1, 1)Model in Prediction of Cardiocerebrovascular Disease

  • 摘要: 目的介绍灰色数列GM(1,1)模型在心脑血管和疾病预测中的应用.方法以对人群心脑血管疾病死亡率预测为例,说明GM(1,1)模型的应用方法、条件及拟和优度检验.结果全国心脑血管疾病死亡率有逐年上升趋势,其中,脑血管疾病和缺血性心脏病上升趋势较明显.结论GM(1,1)模型能够较好的用于疾病死亡率的近期预测,而中长期预测的效果不太理想.

     

    Abstract: ObjectiveTo give a comprehensive description of GM(1,1)modeling for prediction of Cardiocerebrovascular diseaes.MethodsAn example of predicting the rate of Cardiocerebrovascular disease is employed to describe the technique.ResultsThe nationwide mortality of Cardiocerebrovascular disease tends to increase year by year,among it,the mortality of cerebrovascular disease and Isechemic heart disease increase more obviously.ConclusionGM(1,1)model can be well used to the short-term prediction of Cardiocerebrovascular disease,but it is not very well in midterm or long-term prediction.

     

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