Abstract: ObjectiveTo investigate the outcome of carbohydrate metabolism among residents without diabetes mellitus(DM)and to provide baseline information for DM prevention and reference for high-risk group screening.MethodsA stratified sampling method was used to select 3 844 residents aged 35-74 years and without DM in Qingdao city.Then the residents were divided into normal glucose tolerance group(NGT)and impaired glucose regulation group (IGR)and the IGR group was again divided into the groups of impaired fasting glucose(IFG),impaired glucose tolerance(IGT),and IFG+IGT.The outcomes of normal glucose tolerance and impaired glucose regulation were analyzed 3 years after the follow-up.ResultsThe 3-year cumulative incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM)in all subjects was 11.2% (12.9% for man and 10.3% for women without significant difference,P>0.05).The 3-year cumulative incidence of T2DM was 9.1% in the rural residents and 12.0% in urban residents.The 3-year cumulative incidence of T2DM in the urban residents at the age of 45-54,55-64,65-74 years were 6.4%,12.5%,and 11.5%,which were significantly different compared to the same age groups of the rural(11.1%,19.9%,and 23.3%;P<0.01 for all).The 3-year cumulative incidence of T2DM were 9.0% in the rural residents and 6.2% in the urban residents at the age of 35-44,without significant difference(P>0.05).The 3-year cumulative incidence of T2DM for NGT,IGR,IFG,IGT,and IFG+IGT group was 7.1%,20.8%,20.9%,14.5%,and 32.3%,respectively.The 3-year cumulative incidence of T2DM was higher in IFG,IGT,and IFG+IGT group than that in NGT group(χ²=28.305,P=0.000;χ²=7.889, P=0.007;χ²=46.438,P=0.000).The 3-year cumulative incidence of T2DM was higher in IFG+IGT groups than in IFG and IGT groups(P<0.05).ConclusionThe IGR groups and rural people older than 45 years were the high-risk group of T2DM.The incidence of T2DM is higher in Qingdao municipality.