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胡文斌, 秦威, 张婷, 史建国, 仝岚, 邱和泉, 金亦徐, 周杰, 罗晓明. 江苏省昆山市1981-2014年肝癌死亡趋势及差别分解分析[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2016, 32(3): 338-340. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2016-32-03-23
引用本文: 胡文斌, 秦威, 张婷, 史建国, 仝岚, 邱和泉, 金亦徐, 周杰, 罗晓明. 江苏省昆山市1981-2014年肝癌死亡趋势及差别分解分析[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2016, 32(3): 338-340. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2016-32-03-23
HU Wen-bin, QIN Wei, ZHANG Ting.et al, . Temporal trend and difference decomposition analysis of hepatocellular carcinoma mortality in Kunshan city of Jiangsu province, 1981-2014[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2016, 32(3): 338-340. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2016-32-03-23
Citation: HU Wen-bin, QIN Wei, ZHANG Ting.et al, . Temporal trend and difference decomposition analysis of hepatocellular carcinoma mortality in Kunshan city of Jiangsu province, 1981-2014[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2016, 32(3): 338-340. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2016-32-03-23

江苏省昆山市1981-2014年肝癌死亡趋势及差别分解分析

Temporal trend and difference decomposition analysis of hepatocellular carcinoma mortality in Kunshan city of Jiangsu province, 1981-2014

  • 摘要: 目的 了解江苏省昆山市1981-2014年肝癌死亡率变化趋势及定量估计影响因素,为肝癌的预防控制工作提供科学依据。方法 收集江苏省昆山市1981-2014年肝癌死亡数据,分性别和年龄组计算肝癌粗亡率与年龄标化率,采用平均年度变化百分比(APC)及其95%CI评价肝癌死亡率的变化趋势,采用差别分解法分析人口因素对肝癌死亡率变化的贡献。结果 江苏省昆山市1981-2014年肝癌粗死亡率在男性(APC=-0.1%,95% CI=-0.6~0.4%)、女性(APC=-0.2%,95% CI=-0.7%~0.3%)和总人群(APC=-0.1%,95% CI=-0.6%~0.4%)中变化趋势差异均无统计学意义(均P>0.05),肝癌中国标化死亡率在男性(APC=-2.6%,95% CI=-3.1~-2.1%)、女性(APC=-2.7%,95% CI=-3.3%~-2.1%)和总人群(APC=-2.6%,95% CI=-3.0%~-2.2%)中均呈下降趋势,差异均有统计学意义(均P<0.05);肝癌死亡率的下降是人口因素与非人口因素共同作用的结果,2014年与1981年比较,男性、女性和总人群人口老龄化贡献率分别为-578.40%、-1403.60%和-700.38%,非人口老龄化贡献率分别为478.40%、1303.60%和600.38%。结论 江苏省昆山市1981-2014年肺癌死亡率在非人口因素作用下持续下降,但受到了人口因素的阻碍。

     

    Abstract: Objective To estimate the temporal trend of hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC) death rates and to quantitatively evaluate influence factors for the mortality in Kunshan city of Jiangsu province from 1981 through 2014.Methods HCC death cases were derived from vital registration data.Crude death rate and age standardized death rate(ASR) of HCC were calculated and annual percent changes(APC) in the rate were estimated for age and gender groups.Difference decomposition method was applied to estimate the contribution of demographic and non-demographic factors to the mortality change.Results The crude mortality of HCC showed no significant temporal trend for total population(APC=-0.1%, 95% confidence interval95% CI:-0.6%-0.4%), the males(APC=-0.1%, 95% CI:-0.6-0.4%), and the females(APC=-0.2%, 95% CI:-0.7%-0.3%)(P>0.05 for all).The age standardized death rate of HCC declined significantly from 1981 to 2014 for total population(30.25/100000 to 14.50/100000; APC=-2.6%, 95% CI:-3.0%--2.2%), for the males(40.69/100000 to 19.70/100000; APC=-2.6%, 95% CI:-3.1%--2.1%), and for the females(21.15/100000 to 9.50/100000; APC=-2.7%, 95% CI:-3.3%--2.1%)(P<0.05 for all).The decrease in the mortality of HCC was due to the combined effect of demographic and non-demographic factors; compared to 1981, the proportion of effect of demographic factor on HCC mortality in 2014 for the males, females and total population were -578.40%, -1403.60%, and -700.37%, respectively.Conclusion The mortality rate of HCC in Kunshan city has declined over the past three decades due to non-demographic factors, but the decline was hindered by demographic factor.

     

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