中国居民1987-2014年肺癌死亡趋势分析

王丽君; 宇传华; 张志将; 燕虹

doi:10.11847/zgggws2017-33-01-11

中国居民1987-2014年肺癌死亡趋势分析

doi: 10.11847/zgggws2017-33-01-11

王丽君¹,
宇传华^1,2, ,,
张志将^1,2,
燕虹¹

1.
武汉大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系, 武汉 430071;
2.
武汉大学全球健康研究中心

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金（81273179;81641123）;上海市教委基金（11YZ51;jdy09067）

详细信息

作者简介:
王丽君(1991-),女,湖北人,硕士在读,研究方向:慢性病流行病学。

通信作者:
宇传华,E-mail:yuchua@163.com

中图分类号: R73-31;R734.2
计量
- 文章访问数: 1434
- HTML全文浏览量: 329
- PDF下载量: 110
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 接收日期: 2016-02-24
- 刊出日期: 2017-01-10

Trend in lung cancer mortality among residents in China: 1987-2014

1.
Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei Province 430071, China

摘要

摘要: 目的分析中国居民1987-2014年肺癌死亡的时间变化趋势。方法汇总中国居民1987-2014年肺癌死亡率数据，利用Joinpoint模型估算各年龄组人群肺癌死亡率的时间变化趋势，负二项回归模型探索肺癌死亡在人群水平上的危险因素。结果肺癌死亡的风险比值，城市居民是农村居民的1.43倍（95%CI=1.35~1.50，P<0.01），男性是女性的2.28倍（95%CI=2.17~2.41，P<0.01），每增加5岁，肺癌死亡风险平均增大62%（OR=1.62，95%CI=1.60~1.63，P<0.01），每过一年平均增大1%（OR=1.01，95%CI=1.00~1.01，P<0.01）；农村居民肺癌中标死亡率上升明显[男性死亡率年度变化百分比（APC）=2.58%，女性APC=2.54%：P<0.01]，城市女性略有下降（APC=-0.74%，P<0.01），城市男性无明显趋势（APC=-0.23%，P=0.11）；城市居民在20~74岁肺癌死亡率逐年下降，≥75岁逐年上升；农村低龄组居民无明显下降趋势，农村男性≥40岁、农村女性≥50岁呈明显上升趋势。结论中国肺癌死亡率的变化趋势有年龄差异；农村地区肺癌死亡率逐年增加。
- 肺癌 /
- 死亡率 /
- 危险因素 /
- 趋势
Abstract: Objective To analyze epidemical features,distribution and time trend of lung cancer deaths among Chinese residents from 1987 to 2014.Methods Lung cancer mortality data for Chinese residents from 1987 to 2014 were aggregated.Negative binomial regression model was used to explore population-level risk factors of lung cancer death and joinpoint regression model was used to estimate annual changes in lung cancer mortality of various populations.Results The lung cancer death risks were higher in urban residents than in rural residents (odds ratio[OR]=1.43,95% confidence interval[95%CI]=1.35-1.50; P<0.01) and in male residents than in female residents (OR=2.28,95%CI=2.17-2.41; P<0.01).A 5-year increment in age was associated with a 62% increased lung cancer mortality (OR=1.62,95%CI=1.60-1.63; P<0.01) and a one year increment in calendar year was related to a 1% increased mortality (OR=1.01,95%CI=1.00-1.01; P<0.01).A markedly rising trend in age-standardized lung cancer mortality was observed among rural residents,with the annual percent change (APC) of 2.58% and 2.54% among male and female rural residents (both P<0.01); whereas,a slightly falling but significant trend in the age-standardized mortality in urban female residents (APC=-0.74%,P<0.01) and an unsignificant falling trend in urban male residents (APC=-0.23%,P=0.11) were observed.The age-specific lung cancer mortality rate decreased yearly for the urban residents aged 25-75 years but increased for those aged ≥75 years; the age-specific mortality rate also increased yearly for the rural male residents aged ≥40 years and the female residents aged ≥ 50 years and no significant variation in the age-specific mortality rate was observed in the rural residents of other age groups.Conclusion There was a significant gender difference in secular trend of lung cancer mortality among Chinese residents and lung cancer mortality increased yearly among rural residents in China.
- lung cancer /
- mortality /
- risk factor /
- trend

HTML全文

参考文献(18)

[1]	Torre LA,Bray F,Siegel RL,et al.Global cancer statistics,2012[J].CA:A Cancer Journal for Clinicians,201565(2):87-108.
[2]	Chen Y,Ebenstein A,Greenstone M,et al.Evidence on the impact of sustained exposure to air pollution on life expectancy from China's Huai River policy[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2013,110(32):2936-12941.
[3]	Fitzmaurice C,Dicker D,Pain A,et al.The global burden of cancer 2013[J].JAMA Oncology,2015,1(4):505-527.
[4]	Fang J,Dong H,Wu K,et al.Characteristics and prediction of lung cancer mortality in China from 1991 to 2013[J].Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention,2015,16(14):5829-5834.
[5]	Meijering E.A chronology of interpolation:From ancient astronomy to modern signal and image processing[J].Proceeding of the IEEE,2002,90(PII S 0018-9219(02)02899-23):319-342.
[6]	Cameron AC,Pravin KT.Regression analysis of count data book-2nd edition[M].Econometric Society Monograph No.53:Cambridge University Press,2013.
[8]	Kim HJ,Fay MP,Feuer EJ,et al.Permutation tests for joinpoint regression with applications to cancer rates[J].Stat Med,2000,19(3):335-351.
[9]	Dobson AKA,Hyland A,Reed R,et al.Tobacco cessation may improve lung cancer patient survival[J].Journal of Thoracic Oncology,2015,10(7):1014-1019.
[10]	Underner M,Perriot J,Merson F,et al.Influence of tobacco smoking on quality of life in patients with lung cancer[J].Revue des Maladies Respiratoires,2015,32(6):586-598.
[11]	International Agency for Research on Cancer Working Group on the Evaluation of Carcinogenic Risks to Humans.Tobacco smoke and involuntary smoking[J].IARC Monogr Eval Carcinog Risks Hum,2004,83:1-1438.
[12]	薛雯,钟理,周敬华.吸烟致肺癌机制及遗传易感因素研究进展[J].中国公共卫生,2011,27(8):958-960.
[13]	赵辉,谷俊东,许洪瑞,等.中国非吸烟人群被动吸烟与肺癌关系的meta分析[J].中国肺癌杂志,2010,13(6):617-623.
[14]	Wang A,Kubo J,Luo J,et al.Active and passive smoking in relation to lung cancer incidence in the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study prospective cohort[J].Annals of Oncology,2014,26(1):221-230.
[15]	Kim CH,Mu L,Wu M,et al.Evaluating the evidence for the relationship between passive smoking and lung cancer[J].International Journal of Cancer,2014,135(9):2232-2233.
[16]	马莉,高晓虹,王猛,等.肺癌影响因素病例对照研究[J].中国公共卫生,2012,28(1):90-91.
[17]	International Agency for Research Cancer.Personal habits and indoor combustions[M].IARC Monographs on the Evaluation of Carcinogenic Rissks to Humans,Lyon,France:2012.
[18]	Wood DE.National Comprehensive Cancer Network(NCCN)Clinical practice guidelines for lung cancer screening[J].Thoracic Surgery Clinics,2015,25(2):185-197.
[19]	Wang X,Adjei AA.Lung cancer and metastasis:new opportunities and challenges[J].Cancer and Metastasis Reviews,2015,34(2):169-171.