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贺哲, 唐尚锋, 李梦雪, 付航, 邵飘飘, 刘春燕, 贺知菲, 冯占春. 中国疟疾风险评估理论模型研究[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2017, 33(4): 531-535. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2017-33-04-05
引用本文: 贺哲, 唐尚锋, 李梦雪, 付航, 邵飘飘, 刘春燕, 贺知菲, 冯占春. 中国疟疾风险评估理论模型研究[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2017, 33(4): 531-535. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2017-33-04-05
HE Zhe, TANG Shang-feng, LI Meng-xue.et al, . Researches on theoretical model for malaria risk assessment in China[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2017, 33(4): 531-535. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2017-33-04-05
Citation: HE Zhe, TANG Shang-feng, LI Meng-xue.et al, . Researches on theoretical model for malaria risk assessment in China[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2017, 33(4): 531-535. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2017-33-04-05

中国疟疾风险评估理论模型研究

Researches on theoretical model for malaria risk assessment in China

  • 摘要: 疟疾风险评估是疟疾管理的重要环节。本研究旨在界定疟疾风险的概念,以不确定性、脆弱性理论为基础,从疟疾发生的可能性和脆弱性2个维度构建疟疾消除后的风险评估概念框架。一个地区不具备疟疾发生的可能性且疟防系统不存在脆弱性问题,可视为永久性的无疟疾风险状态;只有疟疾风险发生的可能性较大和系统脆弱性较大时,疟疾风险才会存在;两者任何一方取值很低时,疟疾风险值很低,但风险会随着低值一方取值增加而增加。因此应以疟疾风险评估概念框架为基础,进而确立疟疾风险评估指标框架,包括传染源、传播媒介风险、人群暴露风险3个维度的可能性指标框架及经济脆弱性、社会脆弱性、政治脆弱性、卫生系统脆弱性和敏感性5个维度的脆弱性指标框架,最终确立疟疾风险评估的相关指标。

     

    Abstract: Malaria risk assessment is an important part of malaria management.Based on uncertainty and vulnerability theory,this study aims to define the concept of malaria risk and to establish conceptual model for risk assessment in late malaria elimination from possibility and vulnerability of malaria.A region does not have the possibility of malaria and a malaria prevention system does not have the vulnerability of malaria epidemic,which can be seen as a permanent state of no malaria risk.Only when the both sides are more likely to occur can malaria risk exist.If the value of any one party is low,malaria risk is also low but the risk will increase as the relatively low value increases.So we should rely on the conceptual framework of malaria risk assessment,and then build a malaria risk assessment indicator framework,which includes probability index framework and vulnerability index framework.The former contains source of infection,vector risk,and population exposure risk,and the latter contains sensitivity and vulnerability of economics,society,politics and health system.Finally,we establish relevant indicators of malaria risk assessment.

     

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