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王惠榕, 张春阳, 邱月锋, 柯丽贞, 颜苹苹, 严延生. 福建省2004—2015年淋病流行特征及发病趋势预测分析[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2017, 33(4): 638-641. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2017-33-04-31
引用本文: 王惠榕, 张春阳, 邱月锋, 柯丽贞, 颜苹苹, 严延生. 福建省2004—2015年淋病流行特征及发病趋势预测分析[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2017, 33(4): 638-641. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2017-33-04-31
WANG Hui-rong, ZHANG Chun-yang, QIU Yue-feng.et al, . Epidemic characteristics from 2004 to 2015 and predicted prevalence trend of gonorrhea in Fujian province[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2017, 33(4): 638-641. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2017-33-04-31
Citation: WANG Hui-rong, ZHANG Chun-yang, QIU Yue-feng.et al, . Epidemic characteristics from 2004 to 2015 and predicted prevalence trend of gonorrhea in Fujian province[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2017, 33(4): 638-641. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2017-33-04-31

福建省2004—2015年淋病流行特征及发病趋势预测分析

Epidemic characteristics from 2004 to 2015 and predicted prevalence trend of gonorrhea in Fujian province

  • 摘要: 目的 分析福建省2004—2015年淋病疫情流行病学特征及未来趋势,为制定防治策略提供科学依据。方法 对2004—2015年福建省淋病病例报告资料进行统计分析,应用灰色系统GM(1,1)建立淋病发病率预测模型。结果 淋病报告发病率从2004年的21.92/10万下降为2015年的13.88/10万,呈下降趋势(χ2=692.485,P<0.01)。发病率以25~29岁年龄组为最高。报告病例较多的地区为经济较发达的泉州、厦门和福州市。男性报告病例数明显超过女性,男女性别比在逐年增大。预测福建省2016—2018年淋病发病率仍然呈下降趋势。结论 福建省淋病发病率虽然呈下降趋势,但各种感染危险因素依然存在,需要根据淋病的流行特点采取有效的措施控制淋病的传播与蔓延。

     

    Abstract: Objective To analyze epidemiological characteristics of gonorrhea between 2004 and 2015 and to predict the prevalence trend of the disease in Fujian province for providing evidences to make disease control strategies.Methods The data on gonorrhea epidemic from 2004 to 2015 in Fujian province were collected from China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention and analyzed with descriptive epidemiology methods.Gray model (1,1)was established to predict the trend of gonorrhea incidence.Results The reported gonorrhea incidence declined from 21.92 per 100 000 population in 2004 to 13.88 per 100 000 population in 2015,with a decreasing trend (χ2=692.485,P<0.01).The highest reported incidence rate was observed in the population aged 25-29 years.The reported cases distributed mainly in Quanzhou,Xiamen and Fuzhou municipalities with better economic development.The reported number of male cases were obviously more than that of female cases and the male to female ratio of the reported cases increased yearly during the period.A decreasing trend was predicted for gonorrhea incidence for the period from 2016 to 2018 in Fujian province.Conclusion Gonorrhea incidence decreased from 2004 to 2015 in Fujian province but there is still the epidemic risk of the disease and effective prevention measures should be promoted.

     

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