肾综合征出血热监测点发病流行强度与曲线拟合模型<sup>*</sup>

肾综合征出血热监测点发病流行强度与曲线拟合模型^*

摘要:
目的预测全国肾综合征出血热(HFRS)发病流行强度和流行规律。
方法对31个国家级HFRS监测点18年来发病率逐年划分发病流行强度等级, 并利用SAS6.12版进行多项式曲线拟合, 建立数学模型。
结果总体上划分为5个高发病区、9个中发病区、17个低发病区; 并分别得到了24个监测点18年的发病率和5个监测点9年的发病率多项式曲线拟合模型, 其中有26个监测点模型检验, P < 0.05。
结论 1994和1995年是发病高峰, 大部分地区在2000年前后有上升的趋势; 对HFRS发病率进行多项式拟合是较好的模型。

Abstract:
Objective To predict the epidemic strength and tendency for hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS).
Methods Data on HFRS incidences of 31 national surveillance spots from 1982 to 1999 were analyzed by epidemic strength classification and polynomial fitting.
Results Five high-rate areas, 9 medium-rate areas, and 17 low-rate areas were identified.Data on incidences of 24 surveillance spots for 18 years, and incidences of 5 surveillance spots for 9 years were used to fit polynomial models.Model tests of 26 surveillance spots were obtained with P < 0.05.
Conclusion In 1990's, the highest rates wre found in 1994 and 1995, and the incidence rates showed an increase around 2000 in most areas.Polynomial fitting was a good method for HFRS incidences.